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Level: Intermediate
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting
Venue: 2020 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: This paper presents a case study of the variability in accuracy ranges for phased project cost estimates in the North American power industry. The study sought to improve the participants’ understanding of risks and estimate accuracy for their major power generation and overhead power transmission projects. The study team also sought to verify the theoretical accuracy values in the relevant AACE International® recommended practices (RPs) for cost estimate classification. The team studied estimated cost by phase (i.e., classification) and final actual data from 40 projects (86 phased estimates) from 6 utility companies completed from 2008 to 2019 with actual costs from 7 million to 771 million (2019$US).Schedule data was also studied, but is not the focus of this paper. Greenfield and brownfield power generation and transmission projects from across the US and Canada were included. Comparisons of the findings is made with other published studies. This study used the same approach as (and general text is intentionally similar to) two Canadian hydropower and overhead power transmission accuracy studies presented at AACE conferences in 2014 and 2017.
TCM Section(s):
7.6. Risk Management
7.3. Cost Estimating and Budgeting
Venue: 2020 AACE International Conference & Expo
Abstract: This paper presents a case study of the variability in accuracy ranges for phased project cost estimates in the North American power industry. The study sought to improve the participants’ understanding of risks and estimate accuracy for their major power generation and overhead power transmission projects. The study team also sought to verify the theoretical accuracy values in the relevant AACE International® recommended practices (RPs) for cost estimate classification. The team studied estimated cost by phase (i.e., classification) and final actual data from 40 projects (86 phased estimates) from 6 utility companies completed from 2008 to 2019 with actual costs from 7 million to 771 million (2019$US).Schedule data was also studied, but is not the focus of this paper. Greenfield and brownfield power generation and transmission projects from across the US and Canada were included. Comparisons of the findings is made with other published studies. This study used the same approach as (and general text is intentionally similar to) two Canadian hydropower and overhead power transmission accuracy studies presented at AACE conferences in 2014 and 2017.