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(CDR-4218) Integrated Disruption Modeling (IDM) using Artificial Intelligence and Discrete-Event Simulation

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Level: Advanced
TCM Section(s)
6.4. Forensic Performance Assessment
9.2. Progress and Performance Measurement
Venue: 2024 AACE International Conference & Expo

Abstract: There are several methods for estimating the time and money lost in the construction industry due to decreased productivity. The measured mile method and its variants, the improved measured mile and the advanced measured mile, are among the most essential approaches for estimating the time lost due to a productivity disruption. The most difficult aspect of evaluating a loss of productivity claim is presenting the claim in a manner that is convincing to both the claimant and the defendant. Complex claims for delay must be supported by extensive, high-quality documentation in order to be presented effectively. When presenting a claim for a delay, it may be advantageous to include visual aids, such as computer models, to simplify the technical complexities involved. Consequently, visual evidence has taken on a greater role in the settlement of complex claim cases. This paper builds on previous research presented for the advanced measured mile in order to validate and fathom the study of labor loss of productivity better. It presents a new integrated model by combining its findings using IBM Cloud Pak for the data artificial intelligence platform with the status of scheduled activities and other evidence of disruptions, including schedule updates, monthly, weekly, and daily progress reports, resource histograms, disruption event concurrency, and photographs of the work site. By contrasting the as-built and planned status of the disrupted construction trades, an additional discrete-event simulation model was developed to illustrate the outcomes, validate their veracity, and increase the model's precision.